Dareen Cone 
The tragic earthquake that struck Turkiye and Syria on February 6th was one of the most devastating events in their history, claiming over 37,000 lives and injuring many more. Despite its immense sadness, it is also likely to have economic repercussions throughout the world; effects such as supply changes due to disruption may be felt even if there isn’t a large impact on global production.
Turkey Is Critically Important For Russian, Middle Eastern, and Caucasian Oils
As a bridge between the energy-rich regions of Central Asia and the Middle East and Europe -the world’s biggest consumer of energy-, Turkiye is perfectly positioned to be an international hub for transportation in global energy.
For several years, Russia has endeavored to export oil and gas directly to Europe to bypass Ukraine. Meanwhile, Central Asian countries and Azerbaijan are exploring the possibility of creating new pipelines specifically for exporting petroleum products into Europe. In response, the European Union and the United States have proposed constructing a pipeline through the Central Asia-Caspian Sea to diminish Russian domination over regional energy supplies. Iran is also interested in building a network of transportation routes that would allow it to send its resources via land instead traveling by way of the Strait Hormuz or Suez Canal. All of those plans will likely include passing through Turkiye.
Russian and Central Asian Turkish States Seek New Routes for Oil Sales
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has severely disrupted the Russian energy supply lines that moved through Ukraine and Poland. While the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline was once bombed, it still remains a secure export pathway for Russia’s resources. To conquer this obstacle and guarantee further stability in their transport pathways, Moscow must rapidly expand existing outlets for oil and gas exports.
To become less reliant on the Russian pipeline network, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan should look to expand their energy export routes. These four former Soviet republics could theoretically connect with destinations such as China, Turkiye, Iran, and Afghanistan-Pakistan-India through new supply channels.
The Most Realistic Options are Turkey and China
Iran has experienced the repercussions of Western sanctions and may face further punishment. Since pipelines passing through Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India are too risky to consider as options, China and Turkiye remain the only viable alternatives.
Unfortunately, the close proximity of Ceyhan to the earthquake’s epicenter will prove detrimental to Turkiye‘s standing as a key international hub for oil and gas transportation. This may prompt Russia and countries in Central Asia-Caspian Sea regions to export their resources eastward through China instead, leading Europe to rely on North Africa or West Africa more heavily for replacements for Russian oil and gas supplies.
European countries’ shift to a long-term reliance on different sources of oil and gas may inadvertently provide financial resources for Islamic fundamentalists, enabling them to expand their terrorist operations in areas like North Africa and the Middle East. This could further fuel already deeply religious, tribal, or national tensions in that region.
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